Flood Update 23 May 2011

Here is the current flood update as of 23 May 2011. Click on the link below and it will play a 9 minute report.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/wxbriefing/wxb26may2011/player.html

Snow Runoff Report May 20, 2011

May 20, 2011

Summary

The cool, wet weather this week has added to the snow pack, lowered current flows out of the frontal canyons and significantly raised the elevation of Utah Lake. Snow pack levels in the mountains east of Provo are up at least a couple of inches over the last four days. Over 2 inches of rain has fallen in Provo over the last three days. Expectations continue to be that runoff will be well above average this year, likely at least matching the flows experienced in 2005.

The elevation of Utah Lake is now 1.4' above compromise (up 0.6' in the last 10 days). It will likely rise at least another foot, or more this spring, certainly exceeding the nearly 2' above compromise reached in 1997 and ‘98. The rain has created additional inflow; while the cool, cloudy weather has minimized evaporation. Inundation of some of the agricultural area north of the lower Provo River now appears likely.

Flows in the lower Provo River are currently about 1400 cfs. The River spiked up to 1600 cfs with the rainfall last night, and flows are expected to be in the 1500 -1700 cfs range over the weekend, depending upon rainfall. Peak flows this year are still weather dependent, but Provo River flows will likely be in the 2000 cfs range in the next few weeks, similar to the 1900 cfs in 2005.

The weather forecast over the next week continues to be cool and wet. Flows out of the frontal canyons are in something of a holding pattern; pending warmer weather, possibly next weekend. Utah Lake will continue to rise.

Flood Update for May 17 2011

Here is a link for the flood update for this week if you are interested in listening to it.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/wxbriefing/wxb17may2011/player.html

Updates and apologies

Dear CERT Friends:

Unfortunately, there will not be a Provo CERT class before the end of June. There was some confusion as to the expiration date of our grant. I apologize for the confusion. We will keep you updated as to when the next class will begin. It looks as though it will be the end of summer or beginning of fall. While we are still organizing and getting things in place, please hang in there because if we all work together our efforts will be successful in building a strong CERT program for Provo.

We will be having a monthly CERT training meeting that will cover different aspects of CERT and emergency preparedness. The first meeting will be Thursday, June 8th at 6 pm. The meeting in will be in the City Council chambers at the City Center and will inlcude a flood presentation and more information about upcoming training and drills. Some of these events will require lots of volunteer participation so plan on attending this meeting and getting more of the details.

Again, thanks for all your support and patience. See you June 9th!

Upcoming CERT training!

I know this is what you have been waiting for. CERT training class is scheduled for Thursday, 26 May thru 14 July. It will be from 6.30 - 9 pm. If there are not enough people for class, then class will not be held at that time.

If you are interested, follow this link to provo.org, click on the emergency management link on the left-hand side of the page. Find the CERT subject on this page, go there and at the bottom of the page you can fill out the form.

Also, if you are interested in training but this class doesn't work out, we have tenatively scheduled class for 8 September thru 27 October. Again, class will be held once enough people have signed up.

Tell everyone you know. We want lots of participation! See you there!

Thank You to everyone!

Thank you to everyone who went over and filled sandbags. I talked with Richard this afternoon and he said that they have all the sandbags filled so they do not need any more help at the time.

What You Should Know About Floods

Utah continues to prepare for possible flooding as increased temperatures forecasted for the next week could mean high runoff. There aren't any flood watches or advisories right now and rivers seem to have receded below flood stage, but temperatures are expected to reach the 60s and 70s in the next few days, and some volunteers aren't taking any chances. There is an opportunity to help fill sandbags in preparation for flooding. If you are interested in doing this, please call Richard Snyder at 801-852-7777. He is with Public Works and can tell you when they have groups scheduled to fill sandbags.

Also, here is a link to a wonderful source of information about floods and what to do if there is a flood.
http://bereadyutah.gov/family/documents/FloodsWhatYouShouldKnow.pdf

Volunteer Oportunity

Provo City is also asking for volunteers to help fill sandbags in case of flooding. If you would like to help with this, please contact ProvoCERT@gmail.com or Richard Snyder 801-852-7777.

I've had a couple of questions about flooding and have added the Snow Melt Runoff Report from the Provo City website for those that are interested and will try to remember to post again when the next one is out. You can access this and more information at provo.org.

SNOW MELT RUNOFF REPORT

May 2, 2011

Summary

High snow pack levels in the mountains east of Provo, combined with high soil moisture conditions and cool, wet weather throughout April; have created great potential for significant spring runoff this year. Current snow pack levels are at, or above 30-year highs for this time of year. Expectations are that

 

The elevation of Utah Lake is

0.7' above compromise. It will likely rise a another foot, or more this spring; possibly reaching, or exceeding the nearly 2' above compromise experienced in 1997 and ‘98. However, the elevation of the Lake is 2½ feet lower than at this time in 1983. The capacity of the Jordan River has been increased since the 80's, and more water has been released early from the reservoirs, in anticipation of high runoff, than occurred in 1983. These factors will keep Utah Lake from getting anywhere close to the elevations seen in the 1980's.

Current Elevation

Estimated 2011 Peak 4491.0' 2.0' above compromise

2010 Peak (2/6) 4489.2' 0.2' above compromise

Elevation 5/2/10 4488.9' 0.1' below compromise

Elevation 5/2/83 4492.3' 3.3' above compromise

1984 Peak 4495.0' 6.0' above compromise

4489.7' 0.7' above compromiseProvo River

Flows in the lower Provo River are approx.

925 cfs. The River spiked up to 1200 cfs on April18th, with the rain storm that day. Peak flows this spring are still weather dependent, but Provo River flows will likely be near the 2000 cfs range late this month, or in early June, similar to the 1900 cfs in 2005. Over 100,000 acre feet of storage capacity currently exists in Jordanelle Reservoir. This flood control capacity, combined with the early release of water out of the reservoirs, will keep peak flows on the Provo River well below the 2400 cfs seen in 1983.

Current Flow: Approx.

Estimated 2011 Peak: 1600 - 2100 cfs

2011 Peak 5/1 @ 47"

2010 Peak: 600 cfs (5/18) Current

925 cfs (cubic feet/second) Snow Pack at Trial Lake47"

2005 Peak: 1900 cfs (5/31)

2010 (5/2) 20"

1983 Peak: 2400 cfs (6/3) Peak 5/15 @ 21"

Note: Flows are measured below Geneva Road

Peak 5/13 @ 35"

Expected Remaining Runoff: 202,000 acre-feet (171% of normal)

Current Storage Capacity: 116,000 acre-feet 1983 (5/2) 31"

Peak 5/20 @ 35"

2005 (5/2) 33"

Frontal Canyons

Snow pack levels in the frontal canyons east of Provo are essentially the same as they were on

April 1

the frontal canyons will be well above average, but still within system capacity; or whether they

will be much higher. The main difference between 1983 and 2005 was that even though the May 2

st. Weather over the next few weeks will still be critical in determining if runoff flows out ofnd snow pack in ‘83 was lower than in ‘05; it only dropped 2" between the 2nd and 25th of May 1983, while in 2005, it dropped almost 2/3 (24") by May 25th. The 2005 flows were well below system capacity, which had been significantly increased (enhanced detention basins and improved outfall piping) since the high runoff of the 1980's.

Current Flows Snow Pack at Timp. Divide and Cascade Mtn.

Rock Canyon

2010 Peak - 6/8 @ 25 cfs Current

- Not yet started 2011 Peak 4/16 @ 48" 4/11 @ 24"45" 21"

2005 Peak - 5/23 @ 64 cfs

2010 Peak 4/15 @ 23" 4/14 @ 18"

Slate Canyon-

2010 Peak - 6/7 @ 4 cfs

2005 Peak - 5/23 @ 29 cfs 2005 Peak 4/11 @ 41" 4/1 @ 27"

(5/2) 37" 22"

Not yet started (5/2) 13" 10"

Little Rock Canyon- Dissipating above Sherwood Dr

2010 - No runoff 1983 (5/2) 32"

2005 Peak - 5/16 @ 4 cfs Peak 5/3 @ 32"

Note: Flows measured at canyon mouths

Outlook

The “nightmare” scenario would be another 2 or 3 weeks of cool, wet weather; followed by

suddenly hot weather, combined with heavy rain storms. This would result in a high percentage

of the snow pack running off over a very short duration of time. The “dream” scenario would be

at least a couple weeks of dry, warm (70's and low 80's) weather, before it gets hot. This would

allow the low and medium elevation snow pack to melt and runoff before the high elevation snow pack does; stretching out the duration of runoff, and reducing the magnitude of peak flows. The “likely” scenario is somewhere in between.

The good news is that the forecast over the next week is for dry, warm (70's, Thur - Sun) weather. This may start the melting of low elevation snow pack, but will have no significant impact on runoff in the Provo River, or the frontal canyon channels through Provo this week.

The next update will be issued Monday (5/9).

Little Rock Canyon, which has had flows trickling out of the canyon mouth for the last two weeks, will likely increase in flow; but not to significant levels. If flows in Rock and Slate Canyons reach the canyon mouths this week, they will be at very low levels. Flows in the Provo River are projected to remain in the 900 -1000 cfs range this week. The elevation of Utah Lake will likely continue to rise slowly, another inch or two over the next week.

Provo City Public Works Department

Greg Beckstrom, Deputy Public Works Director

801-852-6720

Utah Lake

runoff will be well above average this year, likely at least matching the flows experienced in 2005. While it is possible that mountain runoff could be the greatest it has been since the high runoff of 1983, the impacts within Provo City would not be nearly as significant, for reasons outlined below. Weather over the next few weeks (temperature and precipitation) will still have a significant effect on the magnitude and duration of spring runoff.

PROVO CITY