May 20, 2011
Summary
The cool, wet weather this week has added to the snow pack, lowered current flows out of the frontal canyons and significantly raised the elevation of Utah Lake. Snow pack levels in the mountains east of Provo are up at least a couple of inches over the last four days. Over 2 inches of rain has fallen in Provo over the last three days. Expectations continue to be that runoff will be well above average this year, likely at least matching the flows experienced in 2005.
The elevation of Utah Lake is now 1.4' above compromise (up 0.6' in the last 10 days). It will likely rise at least another foot, or more this spring, certainly exceeding the nearly 2' above compromise reached in 1997 and ‘98. The rain has created additional inflow; while the cool, cloudy weather has minimized evaporation. Inundation of some of the agricultural area north of the lower Provo River now appears likely.
Flows in the lower Provo River are currently about 1400 cfs. The River spiked up to 1600 cfs with the rainfall last night, and flows are expected to be in the 1500 -1700 cfs range over the weekend, depending upon rainfall. Peak flows this year are still weather dependent, but Provo River flows will likely be in the 2000 cfs range in the next few weeks, similar to the 1900 cfs in 2005.
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